Wednesday, June 6, 2007

The powerhouse of Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs has worked on nearly half of all private equity deals around the world so far in 2007, in what is turning out to be a record year for the industry.

The combined value of buyouts in the first five months of this year has climbed to nearly $500bn (€372bn), according to data provider Dealogic, and Goldman has worked as an adviser or finance arranger on 50 deals worth a combined $226.5bn.

Goldman pushed JP Morgan and Citi into second and third place respectively, but was boosted by the firm advising its in-house private equity arm’s $87.7bn of deals. Based on an assumed 1% to 2% advisory and debt arrangement fee, Goldman Sachs could have earned $4bn in the first five months, if all announced deals are completed.

By the end of May, private equity firms had announced $483bn of deals, more than double the total by the same stage of 2006 and nearly 30 times the value a decade before.

A third of the year’s deals were announced last month, Dealogic said, including Goldman Sachs and TPG Capital’s agreed $25bn take-private of US telecoms company Alltel. However, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts has taken the top spot for financial sponsors having agreed $123bn of deals.

KKR’s global buyout total was nearly the same size as the entire value of announced deals in Europe, according to Dealogic, which was $734bn.

Our take on this news: Goldman Sachs is indeed a powerful and formiable investment firm. However, KKR is still and always will be the King of Wall Street. KKR is superior to everyone in every aspect of mergers and acquisitions industry.

Monday, June 4, 2007

Where Venture Capital is flocking to now

What's the hottest place to invest? That's always what any self-respecting venture capitalist wants to know. In 2004, Russian tech startups were clearly off the radar screen, as Sven Lingjaerde will tell you. Lingjaerde, a VC and founder of the European Tech Tour Assn., organized a visit to Moscow for 53 venture capitalists from the U.S. and Western Europe. At the time, none of the 25 outfits that pitched to the group got funding.

Fast-forward three years, and it's a different story. Today, eight of those companies have secured Western backing. And by some estimates, three could be valued north of $1 billion.
Finally, investors are starting to look beyond China and India and are pouring more time, energy, and money into the fast-growing economies of Central and Eastern Europe. At least $500 million is sitting in funds targeting the region, and far more is coming from global outfits that see potential in the former Soviet bloc. With a deep pool of creative technology talent and a gross domestic product expanding at a rate of 6% to 9% per year, Eastern Europe is piquing the interest of VCs large and small. Says Yoav Sarnet, who oversees business development in the region for Cisco System (CSCO)s Inc.: "As we look globally to where the next venture asset class is going to emerge, it's definitely Russia and Central and Eastern Europe."

Some VCs even say the region could soon rival India and China when it comes to spawning tech startups with global potential. While India has built a global hub for information technology outsourcing, little of the business is core research and development for cutting-edge products. Russians, Poles, and Romanians, by contrast, excel at the kind of creative development work tech startups need for breakthrough innovations, many investors say. "Central and Eastern Europe are already a better play" than China and India, says Scott Maxwell, co-founder of OpenView, which has invested 30% of a $100 million global technology fund in the region. "The technologies are more sophisticated."

Venture investors say the region is a bargain, with the potential for finding blockbuster hits by exporting these startups' wares and knowhow to customers worldwide. Some think valuations of tech companies are as little as 10% of comparable outfits in the U.S. "You can make very small investments with mega-returns if the technology works out," says Richard Stokvis, a partner at London investment bank Europa Ventures and a medical technology expert who advises venture backers in the region.

PROS AND CONSFor the moment, Russia is getting lots of buzz, thanks in no small part to its huge and increasingly flush consumer class. Investors like the country's vibrant domestic market for Web and mobile phone services. And the potential profits in serving Russia's 150 million consumers is clear, thanks to successes such as Yandex and Ozon, Russia's answers to Google (GOOG) and Amazon.com (AMZN).
That has investors jumping in with both feet. Asset Management Co. in Palo Alto, Calif., run by legendary VC Franklin "Pitch" Johnson, has launched a $104 million fund called Bioprocess Capital Partners. It will invest in Russian biotech and includes $52 million from the Kremlin. Veteran tech executive Roel Pieper, based in the Netherlands, has set up a new fund primarily targeting Russian companies, including hydrogen technologies and light jets. And Alexander Galitsky, a Russian entrepreneur turned investor, is planning a fund later this year in partnership with unnamed Western VCs. "This is just the beginning," says Joe Bowman, an American working for Russian Technologies, a $50 million early-stage fund based in Moscow. "We're entering a new era for Russian venture capital."

Diving into Russia, though, still carries plenty of risk, and for some the country remains strictly off-limits.

With its rampant corruption, shifting legal environment, and competition from deep-pocketed locals, Russia can be a tough place for Western VCs. "One reason not to go to Russia is the amount of Russian money available," says Pekka Santeri Mäki, managing director of 3TS Capital Partners Ltd., which shuns Russia for Central Europe and is closing deals with two tech startups in Romania.

Indeed, Central Europe has no shortage of brilliant minds and promising technologies waiting to be set loose. New York VC Martin Jasinski visited 50 companies in Poland last year and was impressed with startup Medicalgorithmics, which recently received European approval to market a portable electrocardiogram monitor that sends data wirelessly to a patient's doctor. Medicalgorithmics is the first investment of New Europe Ventures, a $50 million fund aimed at Eastern Europe.

While there's plenty of tech talent in the region, its companies are often less endowed with management chops. So some investors are providing financial and marketing smarts. U.S. and European backers of LogMeIn, a maker of popular software for remote access to PCs, urged the company to move its marketing headquarters to Boston, which helped put sales on track to double this year, to $40 million. And Acronis, a Russian software house that makes disaster recovery programs, left its research-and-development team of 150 outside Moscow but moved its headquarters to Burlington, Mass., and hired an American CEO to pump up global sales.
One pleasant surprise for VCs is the red-hot Warsaw Stock Exchange. Last year, 38 companies raised a total of $1.9 billion in initial public offerings in Warsaw—second in Europe behind the London Stock Exchange. That helped fuel a 42% rise in Warsaw's benchmark index in 2006. Since January, 19 more companies have gone public in the Polish capital, helping to push the exchange up by an additional 18% so far this year. In October the bourse will launch a secondary market tailored to listings for technology startups as it seeks to extend its allure as a regional exchange.

The winners on the Warsaw bourse could soon be joined by a handful of Russian startups that are eyeing public offerings. One is Yandex, a 10-year-old Web search company based in Moscow that has a 50% market share in Russia, vs. Google's 15%. Yandex' revenues doubled last year, to $72 million, and a planned IPO could give the company a market capitalization of some $1 billion.

Our take on this news: The sauviest venture capitalists have always looked throughtout the world for opportunities. With an ever-changing economical climate in many countries, opportunites abound everywhere. Just make sure your invesatments aren't in politically troubled countries.

Morgan Stanley spinning off Discover

NEW YORK (AP) -- Morgan Stanley on Friday said it will spin off its Discover Financial Services unit on June 30 to focus on its more lucrative securities business.
The New York-based company had said in December that it would spin off the credit-card unit, without disclosing details. On Friday, it said shareholders will get one share of Discover common stock for every two shares of Morgan Stanley. It expects regular trading to begin July 2 on the New York Stock Exchange under the stock symbol "DFS."

This marks the end of Morgan Stanley's involvement with Discover, which began as a unit of Sears Roebuck & Co. in 1986 and eventually grew into the world's fourth-biggest credit-card brand. Discover has about $5.2 billion in equity, with some $46.3 billion of outstanding loans.
While Discover has been an important slice of Morgan Stanley's revenue stream, there has been continued calls by Wall Street for the company to focus on its more lucrative investment banking and institutional trading business. The nation's second-largest investment house has in the past trailed the kind of profit margins regularly achieved by bigger rival Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

The spin-off is structured as a tax-free dividend. Morgan Stanley is not keeping any shares.

The move comes as rival Visa International plans to go public in 2007, following in the footsteps of Mastercard Inc.'s banner listing earlier this year.

Discover touts more than 50 million card holders, but only 18.4 million active accounts. The unit earned $1.5 billion in 2006 on record revenue of $4.3 billion.

Shares of Morgan Stanley rose $1.03, or 1.2 percent, to $86.07 Friday

Our take on this news: It is about time Morgan Stanley figured this one out! The Discover spin-ff will be a win-win for both companies.

Bancroft's changing their mind?

No one really thought the Bancrofts were united in their decision to spurn Rupert Murdoch. Indeed, the offer, generous on the surface, came at a time of generational transition within the family. While the elders opposed a deal, their children were more willing to think about it. Some, according to the New York Times, thought that the company needed some strong medicine to cure years of poor performance. Still, it took family member Leslie Hill to push the family to take action. The result is that the family changed its tune and is now willing to speak with News Corporation. I'm not sure what this will amount too. Many are betting on another bidder emerging. Stay tuned.

Our take on this news: Did anyone really doubt that the offer by Murdoch would be spurned? Not any of us!

Friday, June 1, 2007

Sizing up Solar IPO's

Two profitable Chinese outfits are going public, but sunstruck investors should remember last year's disappointing ethanol offerings

by Alex Halperin

Around this time last year, corn-based ethanol sprouted into investor's minds. Stock in agriculture giant Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) was soaring on ethanol prices, and smaller pure-play outfits like VeraSun Energy (VSE) and Aventine Renewable Energy (AVR) timed their initial public offerings to coincide with America's newfound interest in alternative fuel.
It hasn't worked out as planned. In Washington, representatives of corn-growing states have put massive support behind the fuel, ensuring that its use will increase for years to come, but the ethanol industry hasn't been able to avoid criticism that the fuel is more of a sop to farmers than the solution to U.S. energy problems. Even ethanol producers have suffered, as demand for the fuel has sent corn prices skyrocketing. Since their market debuts, VeraSun and Aventine shares have both fallen more than 40%, and ADM is well off its 52-week high.
That hasn't kept other alt-energy players from throwing their hats in the ring. This year, investors willing to brave this still risky segment may have a more attractive option in solar power. Two upcoming U.S. initial public offerings by Chinese companies highlight a clean energy source that could be a smarter long-term bet. While corn-derived ethanol's strongest advocates are corn farmers and their lobbyists, energy analysts tend to see a bright future for solar power once it can overcome several obstacles.
Seeking Secure Supplies
The first hurdle, not surprisingly, is cost. Solar installations are expensive and polysilicon, a necessary ingredient for solar panels and computer chips, is in short supply. Demand exceeds the capacity and new plants can take years to come on line. Polysilicon is so highly valued that U.S. outfit Evergreen Solar (ESLR) and the Chinese company Suntech Power (STP) recently exchanged stakes in themselves for secure supplies of the material.
This week should see the IPO of LDK Solar, a Chinese manufacturer of solar wafers used in the solar panels that actually convert sunlight into electricity. The company, analysts say, is in a relatively good position, having secured much of the polysilicon it will need for its expected production capacity. Sam Snyder, an analyst at IPO research shop Renaissance Capital, says the deal for the pure-play wafer manufacturer has "scarcity value" in an industry where companies split up the multistep process of manufacturing solar panels.
Another Chinese player expected to price in coming weeks is Yingli Green Energy, which offers investors a vertically integrated model that manufactures wafers and makes them into photovoltaic cells. It also works on folding them into workable solar power-generating systems.
Relatively Young Industry
Both companies have put up credible numbers. LDK posted 2006 net income of $25.8 million on sales of $105.5 million, while Yingli had $24.1 million in net income on revenue of $114.4 million in the first eight months of 2006.
So far the relatively young industry has seen excitement as stocks in profitable companies like SunPower (SPWR) and First Solar (FSLR) enjoyed enormous gains in their stock prices while other less nimble companies struggled in the fledgling space. The Chinese companies may have advantages over their U.S. counterparts as demand for solar electricity builds.
Todd Glass, chair of the energy practice group at law firm Heller Ehrman, says "anytime where manufacturing cost is a key component, China has a competitive edge" over American outfits. This is especially the case when the companies have a relatively solid supply of polysilicon, as both LDK and Yingli do.
New Technology on the Way
However industry dynamics could be changing. Glass sees the polysilicon supply growing as more plants get up and running. Already industry consensus has it that more polysilicon is used in solar panels than for microchips, their previous dominant use.
Polysilicon has proven a boost for manufacturers such as St. Peters (Mo.)-based MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) which has seen its stock price more than double since July. However a newer technology called thin film could emerge as the next-generation solar competitor. Miasolé, a private Silicon Valley startup, manufactures solar cells that use a metallic compound instead of polysilicon, exempting it from the heated competition for polysilicon. Profitable First Solar also uses a non-silicon technology.
But before warming to solar power, investors should remember how last year's ethanol boomlet went sour. Even when a product gains widespread use, profits—and stock-price gains—are not a sure thing. And while solar technology has a bright future, not all the players will share the spoils.

Our take on this news: This is a great idea to give alternative energy firms access to the marketplace. This industry's need alot of capital which Wall Street can provide. This, too, is an old concept never taken advantage of a decade ago. Better later, than never.

Evercore aims to make bigger splash

Boutique investment bank Evercore Partners really wants to make a splash in the deal world. Evercore's co-chairman and co-CEO Roger Altman says the bank aims to hire about 10 more senior bankers this year, bankers of the big-name variety. That's a lot for a firm that has just 16 such "producing partners" on its roster currently. The latest hire was a big one: Mark Vander Ploeg, a veteran of Merrill Lynch, where he was vice chairman and co-head of consumer, retail, gaming, leisure and transportation. There are rumors that Evercore is pursuing George Young, a star telecom banker who left Lehman Brothers earlier this year. I'm sure the firm is handing out lots of equity. The bank is also betting there's a lot of legs left in the current deal rally. We'll likely see more big announcements.

Our take on this news: Evercore is one of the few companies that have the right idea. Find proven "producing partners" who have the ability to distinguish itself from trying to be something there not. Giving out equity of the firm is the right incentive to qualified and competent personal.

Value hedge fund, and interesting concept

We do not often associate value investing with hedge funds. We tend to think of hedge funds as swashbuckling growth style investing goosed with lots of derivative play. But Sellers Capital, formed by a former Morningstar strategist, is indeed a value-oriented hedge fund. What's more, it's concentrated. No more than 15 stocks in its portfolio at a time. Returns are returns after all, so if the fund can make it work, people will notice. Before fees, the fund has generated annualized returns of 33.1 percent vs. 13.4 percent for the S&P 500. After fees, investors have still probably beat the index. Still, I doubt we'll see a lot of similar funds rise. Factoring out all the fees, it just may be that people will be tempted over the long-term to ask: Why not a mutual fund?

Our take on this news: Great question, "Why not a mutual fund?" Stay clear of the Hedge Fund industry, whenever everyone joins in the process, it is set up for a downside and failure.